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The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could significantly impact the Italian financial market, particularly BTPs. A Trump victory may boost defense sector stocks like Leonardo due to increased military spending, while also raising inflationary pressures that could lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields and lower BTP prices. Conversely, a win for Kamala Harris is expected to have minimal effects on the market.
IG
As the 2024 US election approaches, markets are experiencing significant shifts, with Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 and US stock markets nearing all-time highs, reflecting optimism for a potential Trump victory. A Trump win could bolster the dollar and equities, while a Harris victory may lead to market volatility and a weakening dollar, emphasizing the importance of economic fundamentals post-election. Investors should prepare for short-term volatility and focus on technical levels as the election outcome unfolds.
IG
As the US presidential election approaches, former President Trump is under pressure to withdraw from both the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Legal experts are divided on the feasibility of exiting the UNFCCC without Senate approval, which could significantly diminish US influence in global climate negotiations. A potential exit would not only exempt the US from submitting climate action plans but could also weaken international pressure on major emitters like China.
Investors are closely watching the upcoming US presidential election, with Kamala Harris slightly leading Donald Trump according to Predictlt. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are set to announce interest rate decisions this Thursday, while key economic data and corporate earnings reports will also influence market movements. Increased volatility is expected as the election outcome may take time to finalize.
IG
The "Trump Trade" has deflated ahead of the US vote, with market momentum shifting as polls and betting sites show increased support for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump's betting odds dropped from nearly 64% to 54%, influenced by a surprising Iowa poll indicating a lead for Harris, particularly among women voters. This shift has led to a slight rebound in European equity markets and increased volatility in the US, with potential bearish effects on markets if Harris secures a "surprise" victory.
IG
Gold reached an all-time high of USD 2,790/oz on October 30, marking a 35% year-to-date gain, driven by expectations of a Trump presidential win. The World Gold Council reported a 5% year-over-year increase in demand, with ETF interest rising as Western investors stepped in. The outlook remains bullish, with a target of USD 2,900/oz by September 2025, while a Trump victory could accelerate this rise.
U.S. equities are expected to perform well through the end of 2024, regardless of the election outcome, with a robust economy and positive corporate earnings. Four potential election scenarios are analyzed: a Republican sweep could boost markets through tax cuts, while a divided Congress may limit fiscal changes. A Kamala Harris victory could lead to a market correction, but international equities might benefit from reduced trade risks.
Presidential elections in the U.S. are underway, with voting already taking place in many states. The outcome remains uncertain, potentially delayed by manual ballot counting and legal challenges. Economic policies diverge sharply between candidates, with Trump advocating for lower taxes and deregulation, while Harris supports increased taxes and regulatory oversight, particularly in the energy sector. Market volatility is expected, but optimism for U.S. equities remains as corporate earnings exceed expectations.
Bitcoin's price remains below $70,000 as the US election approaches, with Trump and Harris in a tight race. Investors are optimistic about potential regulatory changes, while the upcoming Fed meeting may influence market dynamics, with a strong chance of interest rate cuts. The psychological barrier of $70,000 is crucial, as recent highs near $73,600 hint at volatility ahead.
IG
The upcoming US presidential election is poised to significantly impact the multilateral system, particularly the UN, where American influence has waned. Both candidates, Trump and Harris, have not prioritized multilateralism, with Trump likely to continue his previous cuts to UN funding and Harris expected to maintain Biden's cautious approach. This trend raises concerns about the UN's effectiveness and the potential for non-Western powers, like China, to fill the void left by the US.

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